Photo by Mike Von


France's decision to withdraw its ambassador and military forces from Niger, following a two-month dispute with the new military regime, is a strategic mistake that could have negative consequences for the region. As a scholar of politics and international relations, I have been studying the security situation and insurgency in the Sahel for over a decade, and I believe that France's actions have created unnecessary uncertainty in a region already beset by insecurity from increasing jihadist activities and six successful coups in the last three years.

France's decision to pull out of Niger will have an impact on counter-terrorism operations in the region. Niger plays a significant role in the security architecture of the Sahel and is actively involved in and contributes to security organizations such as the G5 Sahel and the Multinational Joint Task Force. These organizations are involved in the fight against terrorism in the region, and France has been actively combating terrorists in the region by training Nigerien forces and flying reconnaissance and attack drones. Losing these officers will create a gap that Niger might struggle to fill in the short term.

The US, on the other hand, decided to negotiate with the junta and resumed operations in some of its bases in Niger, having secured agreement from the junta. The terms of the agreement between the US and the military junta were not published, but it is not unreasonable to assume that one of Washington's reasons for making sure it remained in Niger was the fear that it might lose the country to Russia. In Mali, the military junta replaced French troops with Wagner forces, and since 2022, Russia has gained influence through the Wagner Group after the exit of France. With the Wagner group already present in Mali, there is suspicion that the recently signed military pact between the three countries (Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso) could expand the presence of the group.

France's decision to withdraw its forces from Niger could also have implications for Europe's migrant crisis. The EU needs stability in Niger to stem trafficking and avoid another humanitarian catastrophe as seen in 2015-16. Europe witnessed the highest number of migrants transiting through Niger and Libya into Europe during this period. The civilian regimes of presidents Mahamadou Issoufou and Mohamed Bazoum contributed to the reduction in the flow of migrants through Niger to Libya. While serving as interior minister, Bazoum was instrumental in passing a law against people smuggling through Niger. The law was championed by Bazoum but also believed to have contributed to his ousting by the military. The junta could threaten to cancel the agreement and look the other way as migrants again transition through Niger into the EU.

In my opinion, foreign powers should accept that there is a government in Niger that has some degree of popularity among the citizens. Frozen channels of diplomacy must be reactivated to prevent a total collapse of the Sahel's security architecture and to achieve a quick transition to democracy. The EU needs to maintain a strong diplomatic channel with the junta to maintain stability, prevent an increase in smuggling, and continue efforts towards the return of democratic order.

In conclusion, France's decision to withdraw its ambassador and military forces from Niger is a strategic mistake that could have negative consequences for the region. It will hurt the fight against terrorism, open the door to greater influence of Wagner, the Russian-backed mercenary group, and have implications for Europe's migrant crisis. Foreign powers should accept that there is a government in Niger that has some degree of popularity among the citizens and reactivate frozen channels of diplomacy to prevent a total collapse of the Sahel's security architecture and achieve a quick transition to democracy.